Optimistic Projections.

UPDATE: The table in the article has been updated with actual 2011 wOBAs for each player, along with actual 2011 PAs. An aggregate line has been added with the combined projected and actual wOBAs weighted by actual 2011 PAs. Also, in light of Mike's response below regarding the handling of intentional walks in their projections, it is possible the RotoChamp wOBA values are artifically-inflated, so the difference between the average Roto projection and the actual might not be meaningful.

While looking through the projections posted at FanGraphs, I noticed that some of the RotoChamp projections seem a bit optimistic. For example, Jim Thome is projected with a .419 wOBA. Thome had a good year last year, putting up a .437 wOBA over 340 PA, but he's also 40 years old, and even with a potential HOF career behind him, his career wOBA is only .407.

This looks like a simple case of under-regressing 2010 performance and not enough weight given to past performance. However, other optimistic projections fall out of this pattern. For example, Albert Pujols is projected with a .449 wOBA, higher even than his career .434 mark despite Albert now being on the wrong side of 30 (it appears the wOBA projections may not remove IBB, so Albert's career wOBA with his IBBs counted as nIBBs would be .444; closer to his projection, but still lower). Albert's 2010 performance, however, does not seem to be driving the high projection; he hit only .420 last year.

Does RotoChamp see something important in projections like these, or is the optimism misplaced? I find 20 different players listed in both the Marcel and RotoChamp projections who are projected at least .030 points wOBA higher by RotoChamp than Marcel. They are:

Name	Age	Rel	Marcel	RotoChamp	diff	2011 PA	2011 wOBA
Jim Thome	41	0.81	0.360	0.419	0.059	324	0.362
Dan Johnson	32	0.4	0.327	0.381	0.054	91	0.181
Jose Bautista	31	0.84	0.362	0.408	0.046	655	0.441
Brandon Allen	25	0.38	0.321	0.367	0.046	195	0.286
Ramon Castro	35	0.6	0.319	0.361	0.042	75	0.332
Magglio Ordonez	37	0.83	0.345	0.386	0.041	357	0.283
Ryan Hanigan	31	0.69	0.329	0.370	0.041	304	0.320
Chipper Jones	39	0.83	0.353	0.393	0.04	512	0.345
Jorge Posada	40	0.79	0.341	0.381	0.04	387	0.309
Matt Diaz	33	0.74	0.330	0.367	0.037	268	0.280
Andruw Jones	34	0.75	0.323	0.360	0.037	222	0.371
Albert Pujols	31	0.87	0.414	0.449	0.035	651	0.385
David Ortiz	36	0.85	0.347	0.382	0.035	605	0.405
Jason Giambi	40	0.78	0.326	0.359	0.033	152	0.407
Matt Treanor	35	0.64	0.279	0.312	0.033	242	0.291
Miguel Cabrera	28	0.87	0.390	0.422	0.032	688	0.436
Chase Utley	33	0.86	0.370	0.401	0.031	454	0.344
Aubrey Huff	35	0.87	0.345	0.376	0.031	579	0.294
Jed Lowrie	27	0.65	0.336	0.367	0.031	341	0.297
Manny Ramirez	39	0.81	0.371	0.401	0.03	17	0.052
						TOTAL PA
weighted average			0.354	0.392		7119	0.353

This does not include prospects who have not appeared in the Majors, such as Brandon Belt, who RotoChamp likes a lot (.385 projected wOBA). Technically, Marcel projects these players with a league average wOBA, so they could be included, but whether or not RotoChamp's prospect insights add value is a separate issue than what I am looking at here. Other than Brandon Allen, these players all have fairly established Major League track records with plenty of data for a projection system to work with, and RotoChamp is still seeing them very differently from Marcel.

The test here is simple. At the end of the year, will Marcel's or RotoChamp's estimates for these 20 players be better? Additionally, will this group signicantly outperform its Marcel projections, even if they still end up closer to Marcel than RotoChamp? After all, RotoChamp could be finding something that Marcel is underselling in these players and still be over-weighting that insight to end up with overly optimistic projections.

Most of the players on the list are in their 30s or 40s (all except Miguel Cabrera, Jed Lowrie, and Brandon Allen). Their average age is 34. Many, like Thome, Jose Bautista, and Andruw Jones are coming off big 2010 seasons, while some, like Albert and Manny Ramirez, are big names projected for bigger numbers than their 2010s would indicate.